This time China has no lifeline to throw us

This time China has no lifeline to throw us

KOL – QUICK UPDATE

KOL – QUICK UPDATE

At the moment Kol is moving sideways and we believe that the buying window could start closing shortly. In our view this is one of those “rare” value purchase opportunities and a 3 year structured product does not only provide a great upside but also provides 100% downside protection.

KOL is an Exchange Traded Fund listed on the NYSE

Description: The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors® Global Coal Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index is comprised of companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from coal operation (production and mining), coal transportation and production of coal mining equipment.

We strongly believe that there is strong long term upside in this investment and that we currently have a limited buying window.

Our recommendation is to buy KOL with downside protection in place.

Week of Opportunity?

I think traders should be watching the markets this week for potential buying opportunities. We highlighted the opportunity in Coal, yesterday but their might be more opportunities in commodities. We are keeping our eyes open and will post anything that we find.

Any comments will be welcomed..

Coal (KOL - ETF) giving value?

We think Coal is showing value - Look at the Chart below.. This is the KOL - ETF

Any comments?

Less bread for your dough

Less bread for your dough

Commodities Gain With Asian Currencies on Outlook for Stimulus - Bloomberg

Commodities Gain With Asian Currencies on Outlook for Stimulus - Bloomberg

Will Surging Oil Prices Prevent Environmental Doom? - Bloomberg

Will Surging Oil Prices Prevent Environmental Doom? - Bloomberg

Short or Not?

The markets are looking fragile and we could see a correction on the S&P 500. The guys doing technical analysis certainly think so..

Our warning: Be careful of shorting here..  There is strong political will to support the markets. The US Presidential election is coming in November and there is no bigger incentive for keeping support in the markets..

Will we buy? The better question is: "Where is the value"? If you can find value then you can profit over time. Currently we are looking for opportunities outside the stock market..

What about investing in yourself and starting a new online business?

Shared Sacrifice Needed

Start your investment education today!

Invest in yourself by starting your investment education today..

The Best Invesrment Advice Ever!

The Best Invesrment Advice Ever!

What would that be? The best investment advice ever? We’ll I think the holy grail in investment advice is ... 

Have you heard about this?

We have found a very interesting idea on the Net. Have you heard about the empower network?

What do you think?

More information here...

What can a trader learn from Alice in Wonderland?

A trader can learn things from an  unexpected source.. Here is some trading wisdom from Alice in Wonderland..

'The rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday--but never jam to-day.'
'It MUST come sometimes to "jam to-day,"' Alice objected.
'No, it can't,' said the Queen. 'It's jam every OTHER day: to-day isn't any OTHER day, you know.'
'I don't understand you,' said Alice. 'It's dreadfully confusing!'
'That's the effect of living backwards,' the Queen said kindly: 'it always makes one a little giddy at first--'
'Living backwards!' Alice repeated in great astonishment. 'I never heard of such a thing!'
'--but there's one great advantage in it, that one's memory works both ways.'
'I'm sure MINE only works one way,' Alice remarked. 'I can't remember things before they happen.'
'It's a poor sort of memory that only works backwards,' the Queen remarked.

Where is the value?

The BIG question we have to ask ourselves now, is WHERE do we find value? We are finding it hard in our business to see opportunity in the stock market and are currently looking at alternatives..

One of the areas where we see opportunity is in lending to business. The banks are contracting their lending books and interest rates in the real world are far, far away from the published ones..

The best investment still is to invest in yourself and your own business.

Maybe a personal challenge is a good place to start. Why not Kajak a river? This is what Mike Boon did.. READ his story here..

How to trade Binary Options

TRADING ?

Are you new to binary options trading? Or, have you tried and failed miserably before? If so, you're about to discover a trading strategy that will have you racking up heart-stopping gains in only a matter of minutes everyday!

More... 

How to Easily Build Amazon Affiliate Sites in Minutes using WordPress!

Now you can easily build Amazon Affiliate sites in minutes using the world's most popular platform with a custom designed theme powered to make site creation easy and earning commissions a breeze.

Amazon Affiliate websites have quickly become a way to generate a range of income for people from all walks of life, whether you are a full time online marketing pro or a stay at home mom looking to make some additional income.

It is quite popular for anyone these days to refer products from Amazon on their blog using Amazon Affiliate Links. But have you considered creating a site that is tailor-made for selling Amazon affiliate products? A site that is made for Amazon affiliate products will definitely see you make more sales as opposed to simply selling single products now and then through your blog articles.

This is the exact reason we have created this Amazon WordPress theme. The days of putting a single banner on your site, advertising a product which may not even be related to the blog content, are long gone.

Even if you have never had a website or done marketing before, you can get started right now using our theme. We take you by the hand and walk you through the process providing the information you need to get started.

The flexibility of our theme allows you to easily select a product to focus your site around, and often times it is a product which you yourself are interested in or have used which makes for a very compelling promotion.

There is a wide variety of products available through amazon, and thousands upon thousands of people are searching for them online, just waiting to find your site offering the product for sale through amazon.

Now you can easily create highly professional Amazon Affiliate websites to improve your income using our theme which has a proven track record for getting results.

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Greek Debt Deal Falls Short

At some point, possibly in the next several weeks, Europe will run into a major flaw in its plan to shore up the region’s finances: Some euro-area governments, such as Greece, simply aren’t going to be able to pay their debts.

The sooner Europe’s leaders recognize this and take appropriate action, the less expensive the solution will be.

This week’s main event in Europe has been a standoff between Greece and its private creditors over the terms of a “voluntary” debt-relief deal. Agreement is crucial to avert a Greek default on a 14.4 billion euro payment due March 20, and to keep open the financing spigot from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Whatever the outcome of those negotiations, though, it won’t solve Greece’s debt problem. TheEuropean Central Bank, the IMF and other official creditors aren’t taking part in the deal, so it will affect only private creditors. They hold about 200 billion euros of Greece’s 338-billion-euronet government debt. In other words, even the 50 percent writedown Greece is seeking will reduce its debt burden by only 100 billion euros, or less than 30 percent.

That’s not enough. Any country’s solvency is a function of its debt load, interest costs, growth rate and fiscal policy. In Greece’s case, assuming an interest rate of 4 percent (the rate it may get out of the debt talks) on its remaining 238 billion euros in debt, and using the IMF’s projections of economic growth, the government would have to run a primary budget surplus(not counting interest payments) of 3.2 percent of gross domestic product indefinitely just to keep its debt burden stable.

Primary Surplus

Don’t count on that happening. Greece has managed to run a primary surplus that large in only six of the past 24 years, when economic growth was much stronger. To meet such a goal now, it would have to reduce its deficit by some 10 billion euros a year, the equivalent of about two-thirds of its spending on social programs.

Portugal, which is not currently in line for debt relief, faces a similarly daunting task. To maintain a stable debt burden, it would have to run a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP, something it has done in only two of the past 16 years.

The dire state of the two governments’ finances raises a troubling question at a time when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are trying to fast- track a new fiscal compact for the 17-nation euro area: How can the agreement, which seeks to toughen budgetary discipline, restore confidence in Europe’s finances if at least two of its signatories are insolvent from day one?

It’s possible that Merkel and her ideological soul mates at the ECB are hoping that, by keeping strapped governments dependent on official financing, they’ll have more power to push through austerity measures. Problem is, heavy debt loads are making the budget-cutting measures much more painful than they need to be -- and probably too painful to put in place.

The likely result: slower growth, greater dependence on official creditors and bigger losses for European taxpayers down the road. Not to mention the deleterious effect the ongoing uncertainty will have on the finances of core euro-area countries, European banks and ultimately the ECB itself. At any moment, doubts about the euro’s survival could trigger a financial catastrophe.

A quicker and more honest reckoning would stand a better chance of stopping the rot and creating the conditions for a successful fiscal union. We have advocated writing down the debts of Greece and Portugal by 70 percent and 40 percent, respectively, leaving them with the much more realistic task of achieving primary surpluses of about 1 percent of GDP. This can be done only if official creditors take losses alongside their private counterparts. With all euro-area governments on a solvent footing, the ECB could then step in with credible guarantees to recapitalize banks and calm market jitters.

All these elements will eventually be needed if the euro is to survive. Enacting them now would dramatically increase the chances of success.

Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View.

To contact the Bloomberg View editorial board: view@bloomberg.net.

Margin of Safety - Commodities

According to Warren Buffet "Margin of Safety" are the three most important words in investment. This concept is also the corner stone of the philosophy that Benjamin Graham taught.
To get an answer of what margin of safety would mean in terms of investing in commodities , we need to be able to value a commodity relative to it's price. The lower the price in relation to the value, the higher the margin of safety. Commodities are also non-income producing assets, in fact there is a cost to carry the commodity. This cost is made up by the cost of money as well as the storage cost of the relevant commodity. The prudent commodity investor should thus factor in this cost when calculating value and should be more conservative in valuation to increase the safety margin.
How do we value a commodity? A whole book can be written about the valuation methods for commodities but we will try to capture a few key concepts.
- Production cost
This is the cost of producing the commodity. In the case of grains that will be the cost to produce per bushel. Unfortunately this is a difficult calculation at the best of times.. Sources to get this information would government agencies such as the US Department of Agriculture or the US Department of Energy.
-Producer break-even
This is the price under which some producers will start losing money. If this situation continue for too long, producers will have to stop producing or go insolvent. This method is handy when looking at metals or other commodities that are mined. Sources for information are the corporate reports of mining companies.
Supply/ Demand Ratios
- This method is widely used to determine a relative value number. This method should be used conservatively though, especially when a commodity is priced above production cost. The price might already factor in low supply/demand ratio.

So, this is a mine-field and the best approach is to be as conservative as possible in valuation. As a rule of thumb: If we are close or under production cost, producers are not making money or going out of business and prices have been depressed for a long time, the case for a value investment could be made..

TRADER LINKUP - Trade Ideas Exchange

TRADER LINKUP - Trade Ideas Exchange